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Golden Eagles hope to score upset in Big East clash with Wildcats

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/09/2010 - Villanova, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Squaring off for the second time in a week, the Marquette Golden Eagles and Villanova Wildcats meet at The Pavilion for a Big East Conference tussle.

After opening league play with a pair of narrow losses, the Golden Eagles finally put one in the win column as they tripped up No. 12 Georgetown at home on Wednesday night, 62-59. The Hoyas are the highest-ranked team Marquette has defeated since knocking off No. 12 Pittsburgh on March 3, 2007. MU, which has yet to win a true road game this season, is 10-5 on the year, and four of the team's setbacks have come against teams currently ranked in the Top-25. This clash represent the fourth straight against a ranked opponent for the Golden Eagles, and the team's next win will be the 50th in the career of head coach Buzz Williams.

Villanova has won 34 straight games at The Pavilion, which includes 14 in Big East play. The Wildcats are 13-1 this season, and they have won both of their Big East battles thus far. VU was most recently in action on Wednesday night when it whipped visiting DePaul in a 99-72 final. Following this contest, the 'Cats will hit the road for three of their next four.

Villanova slipped past Marquette in Milwaukee last Saturday, 74-72, to extend its lead in the all-time series to 9-6.

Entering the matchup with Georgetown, either Lazar Hayward (18.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) or Jimmy Butler (15.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg) had led the team in scoring in every game this season. But Venezuela native David Cubillan broke the mold by scoring 18 points, all of which came on a perfect 6-of-6 effort from three-point land. Still, Cubillan is averaging just 7.0 ppg despite starting all 15 games. He has hit nearly half of his three-point tries though, helping the team to a 41.7 percent mark from long-range this season. Overall, Marquette is putting up 76.0 ppg in dropping 47.1 percent of its total shots, while foes are permitted a mere 61.5 ppg on 43.2 percent shooting from the floor, which includes a 32.1 percent mark from downtown. Forcing turnovers, an average of 15.3 per tilt, has been one of the hallmarks for this team in the first half of the campaign.

Offensive production hasn't been a problem for Villanova this season, as the team has eclipsed the 80-point barrier eight times and the 90-point mark on six occasions. The team is averaging 93 ppg over its last six victories. Top scorer Scottie Reynolds (17.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) has raised his level of play in recent weeks, and he is coming off a 21-point performance in the recent rout of DePaul, hitting 8-of-13 shots from the field. Over his last seven games, Reynolds is averaging 21.9 ppg on the strength of 57 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 21-of-43 showing from three-point range. In addition to Reynolds, VU is also getting solid performances from Corey Fisher (13.0 ppg, 4.5 apg), Reggie Redding (13.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.8 apg), Antonio Pena (12.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Taylor King (11.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg), each of whom helps the team put up 84.8 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting from the field and 37.2 percent from beyond the arc. Defensively, the 'Cats are yielding 68.7 ppg with foes knocking down just 39.7 percent of their field goal attempts.


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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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