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World Cup 2010 Preview: Denmark capable of deep runSoccer Betting Lines05/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denmark features one of the most experienced cores in the world, led by captain Jon Dahl Tomasson and his 107 international appearances, but 22-year-old Nicklas Bendtner could ultimately determine just how big of an impact the Danes have in their fourth World Cup. Dahl Tomasson, Jesper Gronkjaer, Martin Jorgensen, Christian Poulsen, Dennis Rommedahl and Thomas Sorensen were key members of Denmark's last World Cup team in 2002, and enter the 2010 tournament with well over 500 combined international games played - and all over the age of 30. Bendtner has already racked up more than 30 appearances for Denmark, and sparkled in World Cup qualifying. He scored three goals for the Danes, including strikes in a win and a draw against Portugal and a draw against Albania, and an assisted on the winning goal in one of Denmark's two wins over Sweden. The Dane played as the lone striker for England's Arsenal for much of the Premier League season and scored 12 goals in all competitions, helping the Gunners reach the quarterfinals of the Champions League and to third place in the Premiership. Now, Bendtner appears on the big stage for the first time. He debuted for his country as an 18-year-old in 2006, but the Danes failed to reach the World Cup in 2006 and the Euro 2008 finals. Denmark doesn't always qualify for the world's biggest stage, but the three previous times the country advanced to the World Cup, it has survived the group stage and even reached the quarterfinals once. Denmark also has a major title to its credit, the Euro 1992 championship. Cameroon, Japan and the Netherlands are also in Group E, but there's no reason why Denmark can't advance once again. "If we don't qualify from our group it will be a huge disappointment. We're going to be up against three teams with different styles, so it's certainly going to be a tricky test for us," Bendtner said on FIFA's website. Denmark needs its veterans to continue to provide leadership, especially goalie Sorensen. He dislocated his elbow in April playing for England's Stoke City but seems to be on course to play in the World Cup. The Danes can't afford any injuries, as they're not one of the deepest teams in the 32-team field. If Sorensen isn't able to play, Stephan Andersen is the only other goalie on the roster with an international appearance. The Danes' starting lineup, which should also feature Daniel Agger and Per Kroldrup in the back line and Daniel Jensen in midfield with some combination of the veterans, proved just how strong they are in qualifying. Denmark scored 16 goals and allowed just five, and its only defeat was in the last game in qualifying to Hungary when it already had first place in Group 1 in European qualifying secured. "We don't have as many options as some of the big nations, and it's therefore very important that our best players are available." Bendtner said. "It's especially crucial that those who play in positions in which we don't have many alternatives remain fit." That, of course, includes Bendtner, who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. If he can hit his stride early in the group stage - and score - a healthy Denmark has enough quality to make a surprising run in South Africa. "If (our best players) can remain fit throughout the tournament," Bendtner, "I believe we can go far."
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Sportsbooks to bet on footballRecently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it. He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games. "Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote. He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games. Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk. Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible. Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines. Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy. With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season. Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas). And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.) The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors. While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger. Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under. One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it. Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami. What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5. That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well. MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple. "The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money. "At the end of the day, we liked the home team." So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams. In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish. MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover. The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing. Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed. MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash. To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards. |
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