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NBA Playoff Preview - Orlando vs. AtlantaBasketball Betting Lines05/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The well-rested Orlando Magic finally will get back to work on defending their Eastern Conference championship when they kick off the second round of the postseason against their division rival, the Atlanta Hawks. The second-seeded Magic have been idle since finishing a sweep of the overmatched Charlotte Bobcats back on April 26. Orlando had little trouble disposing of the Bobcats despite All-Star center Dwight Howard being in constant foul trouble throughout the set. It was the first sweep in a best-of- seven series in Magic franchise history. "When you write it down in the books it's a sweep, but that was a very difficult series," Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said. "It was physical, tough and they made it very tough on us. We just struggled to score points and get shots. I thought they had a great defensive game plan in the series." Howard was able to play in just 105 minutes in the entire series and averaged a pedestrian 9.8 points and 9.3 rebounds, although he was his usual disruptive self on the defensive end, swatting away 20 shots, an average of 5.0 per game. "Regardless of us winning with him in foul trouble throughout the series, we still need him on the floor," Orlando forward Vince Carter said. "He's a big part of what we do. We can go as far as he takes us. Our job is to help him." The All-Star center and two-time reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year fouled out of the final two games in the series with Charlotte and committed five fouls in each of the first two contests. Howard was so upset with the officiating, he was fined $35,000 for using his personal blog to criticize the referees a day after the sweep. "I'm not looking to say anything to get myself in trouble with the league, but I just don't see other star players getting called for fouls the way I get them," Howard's blog read. "No star player in the league is outta games the way I am." Van Gundy and forward Matt Barnes also were fined $35,000 apiece last week for criticizing officials earlier in the series. The Hawks, meanwhile, had to fight tooth-and-nail to fend off the upstart Milwaukee Bucks. After falling behind 3-2 in the set, Atlanta routed the Bucks in Brew City during Game 6 and repeated that with an emphatic Game 7 win in Dixie on Sunday. "These guys didn't stop believing," Hawks head coach Mike Woodson said. "We got beat in Game 5 and it was tough to swallow because we controlled that game. But to bounce back like they did and go back into Milwaukee and bring it back home and win it is unbelievable." Orlando took three of four games from the Hawks in the regular season and won the Southeast Division by six games over Atlanta. The two teams have met just one time in the postseason, however, a 4-1 Magic win in the 1995-96 Eastern Conference semifinals. MATCHUPS: POINT GUARD: In the first round of the playoffs Orlando's Jameer Nelson returned to the All-Star form he showed in the first half of last season before going down with a shoulder injury. The former Saint Joseph's star was the best player of the Magic against the Bobcats, averaging a team-best 23.8 points and 4.5 assists. A steady point guard that can be counted on to run things smoothly even when things aren't going the way you would like, Nelson turned over just five times in 145 minutes against the Bobcats. However, he is undersized and can be a liability at the defensive end at times. Bibby is one of the most experienced and underrated point guards in the East and is very familiar with the postseason. A vital piece of Sacramento's tough teams a few years back, Bibby has been the best floor general in Atlanta since Mookie Blalock ran the point for the Hawks. Bibby can also stick the three in a big spot and close a game with some of the best, but he is aging and is clearly just a secondary option these days. EDGE: MAGIC SHOOTING GUARD:Vince Carter, an eight-time All-Star, isn't the same player he once was in Toronto or New Jersey but he can still light it up and take over a game at times. You certainly can't expect big-time production consistently from Carter these days but when the jumper is falling, he is still very tough to check. Problem is, Carter shot just 35.7 percent vs. the Bobcats and a miserable 1-for-17 from three-point range. Atlanta counters with Joe Johnson, one of the NBA's best all-around players that led the Hawks in every major offensive category this season. He is also the team's go-to-guy down the stretch of close games and, when hot, can fill the stat sheet like few others. Johnson, who is also an underrated defender, was his usual productive self against Milwaukee, averaging 20.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.7 assists. EDGE: HAWKS CENTER: The Bobcats had three 7-footers to throw at Howard while Atlanta has a glorified power forward in Al Horford along with the inconsistent Zaza Pachulia. A monster inside that can dominate any game, Howard has to forget about the referees and just play his game. The tinge of immaturity and shaky free-throw shooting are always on the back- burner with Howard but he finished the regular season leading the league in both rebounding and blocked shots for the second straight season, a feat never done before. To control the double-double monster on the offensive end, you need to push him away from the basket, something Horford just can't do. Defensively, Howard still dominated against Charlotte but he is obviously prone to foul trouble so the whistle will be key again from game to game. "There has been no (Hedo) Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis missed the first 10 games of the season, Vince Carter started very slowly and they still have the second best record in the NBA because of Dwight," TNT NBA analyst Charles Barley said. Horford is really an athletic power forward playing center but he is an excellent rebounder and shot-blocker. The Florida product, like a lot of young players, doesn't have many low-post moves but he has been a vital piece to Atlanta's turnaround the past few years and nearly averaged a double-double in the first round (15.6 ppg and 9.9 rpg). EDGE: MAGIC SMALL FORWARD: Barnes was the biggest surprise for Orlando this season, taking over the starting job and turning into a solid role player. A pesky defender, Barnes also developed a solid stand-still, three-pointer from the weak-side this season but he is a limited player. The Hawks' Marvin Williams on the other hand is another former high draft pick that kind of gets lost in the shuffle when you talk about the young talent in Atlanta since Horford and Josh Smith have developed into All-Star type players. Williams is very skilled but lacks toughness and is a below average rebounder. EDGE: EVEN POWER FORWARD: Lewis isn't your prototypical power forward but the 6-foot-10 veteran is a matchup nightmare for most clubs. The former All-Star still has one of the best strokes in the game but can now put that in his pocket and spend more time on the blocks. His weaknesses are rebounding and low-post defense but his ability to stretch the floor on the offensive end more than makes up for that. In fact, when Lewis is stroking the three at a high level, Orlando is almost impossible to match up with it. The dynamic Smith is a totally different player than Lewis. A superlative athlete, Smith will look to run the floor at every opportunity. His energy and ability to finish at the rim also really ignite the crowd when the Hawks are at home. EDGE: EVEN BENCH: Mickael Pietrus is inconsistent. One minute he can be Van Gundy's whipping boy and the next he is brilliant, burying big three after big three. An extremely athletic player, Pietrus will also get opportunities to defend both Johnson and Williams at times. Big man Marcin Gortat got a lot of playing time in Round 1 due to Howard's foul trouble and is skilled enough to hold down the fort. Obviously, though, Orlando would like to see less of him. Veteran point Jason Williams, sharp- shooter J.J. Redick and forward Ryan Anderson also get situational minutes off Van Gundy's deep bench. We all knew Hawks guard Jamal Crawford had big-time offensive skills but he was always on miserable teams and the jury was out on whether he could fit in and contribute with a winning program. That's all in the rear view mirror now. Crawford averaged 18.0 points and 3.0 assists on a 53-win Atlanta team and was named the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year. He was also the Hawks' best offensive player when they came back in Games 6 and 7 vs. Milwaukee and scored 15.9 ppg off the bench vs. the Bucks. Maurice Evans adds defense on the wing and Pachulia is a solid reserve big man but Woodson just doesn't have the depth to call on like Van Gundy. EDGE: MAGIC COACHING: Van Gundy proved he was one of the game's best tacticians during last year's playoff run and continues to be one of the premier X's and O's guys in the game. Woodson, meanwhile, learned at the foot of the master, Larry Brown. Both got votes in the Coach of the Year balloting and both are certainly among the top 10 mentors in the game. EDGE: EVEN PREDICTION: The Magic are the more rested and deeper team. They are also almost impossible to beat when they stretch the floor and the threes are falling. Meanwhile, despite its success in Milwaukee during Game 6 in the East quarters, Atlanta has a history of falling flat on the road in the postseason. The Hawks are far too talented to get blown out in the series but it's tough to project them to beat Orlando in a long series. Magic in 6.
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How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Problem with Bears?Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true. "There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us." Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that." Mysportsbook.com online online sportsbook accepts Visa & Mastercard |
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