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The Great Wall of Washington: NBA Mock Draft v. 1.0Basketball Betting Lines05/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA Draft Lottery would be a lot of fun if it wasn't so much work. It's like the NBA's version of a cotillion. Everyone gets dressed in their Sunday best for a catered affair at the NBA Entertainment Studios in Secaucus, NJ. The only disappointment to me was that the catering crew in no way resembled the cast of Starz' brilliant show, Party Down. If the NBA is looking for a way to improve things for next year, an Adam Scott or Lizy Caplan cameo might put the event over the top. That said, it's a great place for scribes like yours truly to get some face time with the various NBA big-wigs in attendance. One minute you might be saying hello to the commish himself, David Stern, and the next Larry Legend comes walking by. A number of teams in the lottery also bring current players. This year I got a few minutes with Indiana All-Star Danny Granger as well as a rising young talent in Sixers point guard Jrue Holiday. But, the NBA Draft Lottery also means something else -- the annual exercise of futility that is known as the mock draft. I was far too busy in Secaucus on Tuesday cozying up to the amazing spread to give the actual draft much thought, but a thrilling Wednesday night watching SAO Little League baseball gave me plenty of time to map things out. Each draft has tiers, and this one is no different. Kentucky point guard John Wall and Ohio State swingman Evan Turner are the head and shoulders of this year's class. The second grouping consists of three solid prospects, forwards Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech and Wesley Johnson of Syracuse, along with Kentucky center DeMarcus Cousins. Wall and Turner figure as no-brainers to go one-two, and then the fun starts as New Jersey and new owner Mikhail Prokhorov make the first real decision at No. 3. So here we go -- The Sportsbook Betting Lines's 2010 NBA Mock Draft, version 1.0: 1. - Washington Wizards - John Wall (Kentucky), Point Guard - Wall combines rare speed with the ball, along with the size and athleticism to be an elite player very early in his career. He needs to improve his jumper but could be a more-skilled Rajon Rondo. Think: Rondo. 2. - Philadelphia 76ers - Evan Turner (Ohio State), Combo Guard - The Sixers jumped up from six to No. 2 in the lottery and lucked out with a virtually mistake-proof pick. Turner, the college player of the year, has a tremendous feel for the game and is an extremely efficient offensive player. He should team with Holiday to give the Sixers a top-tier backcourt for the next decade. I could see Ed Stefanski trading out for Cousins but let's assume soon- to-be new coach Doug Collins talks the embattled Sixers' basketball chief off the ledge. Think: Brandon Roy 3. - New Jersey Nets - Derrick Favors (Georgia Tech), Power Forward - The Nets will have the first real decision in the draft. I think Cousins is the third- best player and has a bigger upside than either Favors or Johnson but New Jersey already has an All-Star type center in Brook Lopez so look for them to go with Favors, a prototypical four in the mold of Kenyon Martin. Think: Martin 4. - Minnesota Timberwolves - DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Center - The Wolves' annual hard luck in the lottery continued, as the team fell from the second spot to No. 4 and will have to make a decision between Cousins and Johnson. Both positions are needs, but it's always harder to find the competent big man and that is Cousins. Think: Shawn Kemp 5. - Sacramento Kings - Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Small Forward - Last year Sacramento fell from No. 1 to four in the lottery and managed to snare Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans. This year, they fell from three to five and will settle for Johnson, a silky-smooth small forward with a big wingspan and a nice jumper. Think: Alex English 6. - Golden State Warriors - Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest), Combo Forward - Since there is a significant drop after the top five players, Golden State was the biggest loser in the lottery, falling from four to six. Aminu has elite physical tools and a nice upside but he's raw and needs to add strength. Think: Marvin Williams 7. - Detroit Pistons - Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Center - Since Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown were the big men in the Motor City last year, you have to think Joe Dumars goes with Aldrich, a legitimate center with top-tier rebounding and defensive skills. He is limited offensively, however. Think: Joel Przybilla. 8. - Los Angeles Clippers - Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Power Forward - The next grouping of players features more than a few power forwards and centers. Since the Clippers have Chris Kaman in the pivot and will have Blake Griffin coming back next year at the four, Patterson seems like a good choice. The Kentucky junior has the ability to move between the three and four, meaning he can play with Griffin and provide insurance at the same time. Think: Antonio Davis 9. - Utah Jazz - Greg Monroe (Georgetown), Power Forward/Center - The rich get richer, as Utah uses the New York Knicks' pick to select the Hoyas big man as insurance for the injured Mehmet Okur and free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. The 6-foot-10 Monroe is a lefty with the skills of a much smaller player. Think: Lamar Odom 10. - Indiana Pacers - Ed Davis (North Carolina), Power Forward - Granger represented the Pacers at the lottery and bowed his head in disgust when the team stayed at No. 10. Getting Granger a long, athletic running mate that can rebound like Davis might make up for some of that disappointment. Think: Dale Davis 11. - New Orleans Hornets - Ekpe Udoh (Baylor), Power Forward - Udoh has the wingspan of a 7-foot-4 player and should develop into an elite shot-blocker early in his career as well as an exceptional offensive rebounder, two attributes the Hornets desperately need. Think: Theo Ratliff 12. - Memphis Grizzlies - Donatas Motiejunas (Benetton Treviso), Power Forward/Center - The top international player in this year's draft, Motiejunas is your typical European finesse big man with outstanding offensive skills facing the basket. He should be able to complement Marc Gasol on Beale Street rather early in his career. Think: Mehmet Okur 13. - Toronto Raptors - Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Power Forward - The Raptors figure to lose Chris Bosh in the offseason so they will need a big man and Orton has a significant upside. He's already got the NBA body and has impressive length but his offensive game needs a lot of work despite a very soft touch that is rare among young bigs today. Think: Marreese Speights 14. - Houston Rockets - Hassan Whiteside (Marshall), Center - Houston has the final lottery pick and takes some insurance for the oft-injured Yao Ming. Whiteside is coming out after his freshman season so he needs some seasoning but will be an imposing physical presence once he grows into his body. Think: Kwame Brown 15. - Milwaukee Bucks - Xavier Henry (Kansas), Shooting Guard - The Bucks added an impressive quarterback last year in Brandon Jennings and now get his running mate to replace the injured Michael Redd and free agent-to-be John Salmons. Henry, the Kansas freshman, is a physical specimen and is tailor-made for the NBA game. Think: Dahntay Jones 16. - Minnesota Timberwolves - James Anderson (Oklahoma State), Shooting Guard - Anderson is slight but tough and could be the best shooter in this year's draft, making him a nice complement to Jonny Flynn in the Twin Cities. Think: Stephen Curry 17. - Chicago Bulls - Damion James (Texas), Small Forward - The Bulls want to win now and may make the big push for LeBron James. I see them going the "best available" route and that might be James, the rare senior that figures as a first-round pick. James excels in transition and is an exceptional rebounder for his size. Think: Derek Smith 18. - Miami Heat - Gordon Hayward (Butler), Small Forward - Dwyane Wade is the first order of business in South Beach. If Miami gets its superstar back, they could use a weak-side shooter like Hayward to take advantage of the double- teams Wade often gets. Think: Mike Dunleavy Jr. 19. - Boston Celtics - Avery Bradley (Texas), Shooting Guard - This is a pretty high pick for a team making a serious run at the NBA title. Since Ray Allen will likely move on in the offseason, the C's can take a flyer on Bradley, an undersized freshman that is a pure shooter and scorer. Think: Jeff Hornacek 20. - San Antonio Spurs - Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky), Combo Guard - The tread is wearing thin on both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. George Hill could be a difference-maker down the line but the Spurs could use another active body in the backcourt and Bledsoe, while not quite ready, can play both positions and has a solid upside. Think: Rafer Alston 21. - Oklahoma City Thunder - Larry Sanders (VCU), Power Forward - The Thunder are very skilled on the wings and in the backcourt so they will be looking for another big body. Sanders has the length to be a help on the defensive end and the boards. Think: Marcus Camby 22. - Portland Trail Blazers - Stanley Robinson (UConn), Combo Forward - Robinson is the type of athlete that will fit right in to what the Blazers are trying to accomplish. He can run the floor and finish, but lacks a top-tier jumper. Think: Shawn Marion 23. - Minnesota Timberwolves - Paul George (Fresno State), Combo Forward - George is a rangy guy that can handle the ball very well for a wing player and run the floor. Anybody who can put the ball in the basket should be considered by the Wolves. Think: Trevor Ariza 24. - Atlanta Hawks - Gani Lawal (Georgia Tech), Power Forward - Lawal, a big guy with great length that can play minutes at both center and power forward, stays in Dixie. Think: Joakim Noah 25. - Memphis Grizzlies - Luke Babbitt (Nevada), Strong Forward - Babbitt is not going to be a star at the NBA level but his energy level will be a great fit for a young team like Memphis. Think: A more-skilled Louis Amundson. 26. - Oklahoma City Thunder - Armon Johnson (Nevada), Point Guard - Johnson has good size for a point guard and is a lefty, which tends to create problems for opposing defenses. Should be a nice 10-15 minute guy to give Russell Westbrook a blow. Think: A bigger Damon Stoudamire 27. - New Jersey Nets - Lance Stephenson (Cincinnati), Shooting Guard - A tough, athletic freshman with an NBA-ready body. His power and quickness could cause a lot of trouble on the blocks in a few years. Think: Aaron McKie 28. - Memphis Grizzlies - Solomon Alabi (Florida State), Center - The Grizzlies probably don't want to pay three No. 1 picks so they will likely move at some point but if they stick why not take the raw Nigerian big man with a defensive upside? Think: Dikembe Mutombo 29. - Orlando Magic - Devin Ebanks (West Virginia), Small Forward - Normally, I would expect the Magic to take a European player and leave him overseas but a poor performance against Boston means they will take a talent. Ebanks is an active wing player that can get after people defensively and has a nice touch around the basket. Think: Tony Allen 30. - Washington Wizards - Dominique Jones (South Florida), Shooting Guard - The Wizards finish the first round by getting Wall a running mate in Jones. a powerfully-built combo guard with a nice offensive game. Think: Vinnie Johnson
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How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. |
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